billion). Meteorological history In early September 2003, a monsoon trough created a tropical disturbance near Guam. The system consisted of a disorganized area of convection, or thunderstorms, in an area of moderate wind shear. By September 4, the convection was becoming better organized around a weak low-level circulation. Despite the wind shear, the system continued to develop, becoming a tropical depression north of Chuuk State. At 0200 UTC on September 5, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, and later that day initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 15W just west of Guam. By that time, the convection had increased over the center. For the first week of its existence, the cyclone tracked generally northwestward, steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. Early on September 6, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the depression to a tropical storm and named it Maemi. With more favorable conditions, including lesser wind shear and enhanced outflow, the storm continued to intensify. The JMA upgraded Maemi to a severe tropical storm on September 7 and to typhoon status – winds of over 119 km/h (74 mph) – the next day. The JTWC had upgraded Maemi to typhoon status on September 7 after an eye feature appeared on satellite imagery. Also around that time, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) began issuing advisories on the storm, giving it the local name "Pogi", although the typhoon would remain away from the country. On September 8, Maemi began undergoing rapid deepening due to enhanced outflow, aided by the flow of an approaching shortwave trough. At 1200 UTC on September 9, the JTWC estimated 1-minute sustained winds of 240 km/h (150 mph) and designated Maemi as a super typhoon. The next day, the same agency estimated peak winds of 280 km/h (175 mph) and gusts to 335 km/h (205 mph), the equivalent of a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. At 1200 UTC on September 10, the JMA estimated peak 10-minute winds of 195 km/h (120 mph) and a minimum barometric pressure of while the storm was 155 km (100 mi) southeast of the Japanese island of Miyako-jima. At peak intensity, Maemi was a small typhoon, with gale-force winds extending only 240 km (150 mi) from the well-defined eye. Around the time of peak intensity, Maemi was slowing its forward motion and began turning to the north, after the eastward-moving