in real life the rules from the purely hypothetical model (where Dr. John is correct) apply. A reasonable person, for example, would not bet on black on a roulette table that has come up red 99 times in a row (especially as the reward for a correct guess is so low when compared with the probable odds that the game is fixed). In classical terms, statistically significant events, i.e. unlikely events, should make one question one's model assumptions. In Bayesian statistics, this can be modelled by using a prior distribution for one's assumptions on the fairness of the coin, then Bayesian inference to update this distribution. This idea is modelled in the Beta distribution. Example: Fighting Nassim Taleb shares an example that comes from his friend and trading partner, Mark Spitznagel. "A martial version of the ludic fallacy: organized competitive fighting trains the athlete to focus on the game and, in order not to dissipate his concentration, to ignore the possibility of what is not specifically allowed by the rules, such as kicks to the groin, a surprise knife, et cetera. So those who win the gold medal might be precisely those who will be most vulnerable in real life." Relation to platonicity The ludic fallacy is a specific case of the more general problem of platonicity, defined by Nassim Taleb as: See also Congruence bias Cromwell's Rule Déformation professionnelle Demarcation problem Focusing effect Laplace's demon Hindsight bias Unexpected hanging paradox Map-territory relation Quasi-empiricism in mathematics Wicked problem Kouska's fallacy References External links Cognitive biases Informal fallacies Nassim Nicholas Taleb