align=center !Gamble A !! Gamble B |- |You receive $100 if you draw a red ball || You receive $100 if you draw a black ball |} Additionally, the participant may choose a separate gamble scenario within the same situational parameters: {| class="wikitable" align=center !Gamble C !! Gamble D |- |You receive $100 if you draw a red or yellow ball ||You receive $100 if you draw a black or yellow ball |} The experimental conditions manufactured by Ellsberg serve to rely upon two economic principles: Knightian uncertainty, the unquantifiable nature of the mix between both yellow and black balls within the single urn, and probability, of which red balls are drawn at vs. . Utility theory interpretation Utility theory models the choice by assuming that in choosing between these gambles, people assume a probability that the non-red balls are yellow versus black, and then compute the expected utility of the two gambles individually. Since the prizes are the same, it follows that the participant will strictly prefer Gamble A to Gamble B if and only if they believe that drawing a red ball is more likely than drawing a black ball (according to expected utility theory). Also, there would be indifference between the choices if the participant thought that a red ball was as likely as a black ball. Similarly, it follows the participant will strictly prefer Gamble C to Gamble D if and only if the participant believes that drawing a red or yellow ball is more likely than drawing a black or yellow ball. It might seem intuitive that if drawing a red ball is more likely than drawing a black ball, drawing a red or yellow ball is also more likely than drawing a black or yellow ball. So, supposing the participant strictly prefers Gamble A to Gamble B, it follows that he/she will also strictly prefer Gamble C to Gamble D, and similarly conversely. However, ambiguity aversion would predict that people would strictly prefer Gamble A to Gamble B, and Gamble D to Gamble C. Ellsberg's findings violate assumptions made within common Expected Utility Theory, with participants strictly preferring Gamble A to Gamble B and Gamble D to Gamble C. Numerical demonstration Mathematically, the estimated probabilities of each color ball can be represented as R, Y, and B. If the participant strictly prefers Gamble A to Gamble B, by utility theory, it is presumed this