was close to a far more catastrophic failure in which either the through-truss or the causeway segment would have dropped from their common support structure. It was clear that the eastern span needed to be made more earthquake resistant. Estimates made in 1999 placed the probability of a major earthquake in the area within the following 30 years at 70%, although studies announced in September 2004 by the United States Geological Survey have cast doubt on the predictability of large earthquakes based upon the duration of preceding quiet periods. A more recent (2008) analysis asserts an increased probability of a major event on the Hayward Fault. Design proposals Retrofit The initial proposal for the eastern span involved the construction of substantial concrete columns to replace or supplement the existing supports. There would also be modifications to the lattice beams as are now complete for the western suspension spans. The original cost estimate for this refit was $200 million. The overall appearance would be little changed. Owing to the retention of the original structure, the bridge's ongoing maintenance costs would continue to be high. The robustness of a retrofit was called into question directly by the Army Corps of Engineers in a highly critical report and indirectly by the collapse of a retrofitted overpass in the 1994 Northridge earthquake in Los Angeles, that structure having been modified in response to the San Fernando earthquake 23 years prior. Replacement Engineering and economic analysis in 1996 suggested that a replacement bridge would cost a few hundred million dollars more than a retrofit of the existing eastern span, would have a far longer expected useful life (perhaps 75 to 100 years rather than 30), and would require far less maintenance. Rather than retrofit the existing bridge, CalTrans (California Department of Transportation) decided to replace the entire eastern span. The design proposed was an elevated viaduct consisting of reinforced concrete columns and precast concrete segment spans as seen in the illustration at right. The design criterion was that the new bridge should survive an 8.5 magnitude earthquake on any of several faults in the region (particularly the nearby San Andreas and Hayward faults). The aesthetics of the proposal were not well received by either the public or their politicians, being characterized as a "freeway on stilts". After this, a design contest was held for a signature span (a span with distinctive and dramatic appearance, unique