slim lead over the pack with 19% support. The remaining candidates' support was calculated at: 17% for Bob Rae, 13% for Stéphane Dion, 9% for Gerard Kennedy, 9% for Ken Dryden, 3% for Scott Brison, 2% for Joe Volpe, 1% for Martha Hall Findlay, and less than 1% for Hedy Fry. The poll found that 27% of party members did not know or were undecided about their choice. The poll foretold Ignatieff's potential second-ballot weakness: 12% selected him as their second choice, compared to 23% for Rae and 17% for Dion. However, the poll's accuracy was questioned at the time since it was taken based on membership lists provided by Brison, Dryden and Dion. Still, a poll of Liberal party members in Ontario and Quebec by EKOS Research Associates for the Toronto Star and La Presse, conducted from September 17–24, showed similar results with Rae and Ignatieff supported by 25% each, Dion by 17% and Kennedy by 16%. Rae and Dion again had strong support for second choice at 27% each, compared with 19% for Ignatieff. Party insiders suggested that Ignatieff would have to secure at least 35% of the delegates elected on "Super Weekend" to avoid being overtaken in subsequent ballots. Although he won the most delegates overall on that weekend, he did not reach the 35% target. An anonymous source speculated to the BBC that Ignatieff's 30-year absence from Canada and his initial support for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq played against him in the election. Patrick Gossage, a Toronto political consultant and Ignatieff supporter, explained his eventual loss this way: "There were people saying, 'Who is this telling us what he's going to do with the party?' Even though he was supported by the party establishment he nevertheless was an outsider, and he never successfully dealt with the labels the media put on him that he'd been away for 30 years." Lauren P. S. Epstein, the former prime minister of the Harvard Canadian Club, said: "What it came down to in the final vote was that the Liberal delegates were looking for someone who was more likely to unite the party; Ignatieff had ardent supporters, but at the same time, he had people who would never under any circumstances support him." Running second in many polls but with strong second choice support, Bob Rae looked like the most likely candidate to capitalize on Ignatieff's second ballot weakness.