days before the election on November 7, the United States' chief negotiator and presidential National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger appeared at a press conference held at the White House and announced "We believe that peace is at hand." Nixon, despite having vowed to end the war during his presidential election campaign four years earlier, had failed to cease hostilities but had withdrawn all American ground combat units and most other American military personnel. While Nixon was nevertheless already widely considered to be assured of re-election, Kissinger's "peace is at hand" declaration increased Nixon's already high standing with the electorate: in the event, Nixon defeated McGovern in every state except Massachusetts and won by 23.2 points in the nationwide popular vote, which was the largest margin since 1936. Remaining U.S. military personnel were withdrawn in 1973, but U.S. involvement in Vietnam continued until 1975. 1980: Carter vs. Reagan Origin of term In the 1980 presidential election, Republican challenger Ronald Reagan feared that a last-minute deal to release American hostages held in Iran might earn incumbent Jimmy Carter enough votes to win re-election. As it happened, in the days prior to the election, press coverage was consumed with the Iranian government's decision—and Carter's simultaneous announcement—that the hostages would not be released until after the election. William Casey, the manager of the Reagan campaign, was the first person to mention the idea of an "October surprise" to the press. On the morning of July 17, he told the press at the Republican convention that he was concerned that Carter would use the advantage of incumbency to spring an event that would benefit him politically. Casey mentioned that Carter had done this during the Wisconsin primary—in reference to Carter's announcement on election morning that he had "good news" concerning the hostages. Casey mentioned to the press that he was setting up an "intelligence operation" to monitor Carter's political activities to keep abreast of such a possibility. The intelligence operation the Reagan campaign set up was extensive. It used military contacts at key air force bases to keep track of military flight movement which could be used to gauge government action concerning the hostages. The operation had also compiled a list of the embargoed military equipment that the US government had of the Iranians that Carter could use to barter in exchange for the release of the hostages. To keep abreast of international information concerning