hurricane status. CSU based this prediction on an ongoing El Niño event, sea-level pressures, and wind currents. However, the prediction issued by CSU proved to be too high, with only four named storms forming by the end of the season and three of those reaching hurricane status. Seasonal summary The season, which began on June 1 and ended on November 30, was very inactive because of strong upper-level wind shear. The wind shear was unusually strong throughout the Caribbean and open Atlantic, and disrupted convection in areas of disturbed weather so they could not develop. Over 60 African systems had formed and made it westward, but when they reached the Lesser Antilles, they were dissolved easily. The only area where the shear was minimal—a region encompassing the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and east of Florida—was where the four named storms developed. Another contributing factor to the low number of storms may have been the decaying 1982–83 El Niño event. The season total of four named storms was the fewest in the satellite era, while the 1983 season was the least active since 1930, which had only three storms. This season and the previous became the first example of two consecutive years to have no storms form in the Caribbean since reliable record began. Additionally, the 1983 season was the first on record in which a system did not reach tropical storm intensity south of 25°N latitude. The National Hurricane Center also issued numeric landfall probabilities for the first time in 1983. Probabilities had been calculated for prior storms for use in the issuing of hurricane watches and warnings, but this was the first time the raw numeric probabilities were released to the public. The probabilities issued were accurate during Alicia, indicating that Galveston and surrounding portions of the upper Texas coast were the most likely area to be struck. Tropical cyclogenesis began on July 23, when Tropical Depression One formed over the deep Atlantic. After crossing the Windward Islands, the depression dissipated over the eastern Caribbean on July 28. As the previous system moved across the Caribbean, another depression formed on July 27 to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression traversed the Atlantic in a west-northwestward direction and also failed to reach tropical storm intensity before dissipating near the northern Leeward Islands on August 2. Later in August, hurricanes Alicia and