second nationally determined contribution(NDC), to cut greenhouse gas emissions 41% compared to business-as-usual by 2030: however this means Turkey’s carbon footprint could increase to about 700 Mt by 2030, with emissions peaking by 2038 or before. Because the government says BAU is 1175 Mt CO2eq, whereas climate activists say that the NDC should have promised an immediate actual reduction. Academics doubt that emissions could be reduced from a 2038 peak to zero by 2053, and say that delaying Turkey’s energy transition is more expensive than starting it at once. Research and data access Sabancı University's Shura Energy Transition Center is researching decarbonization pathways. Linear regression, expert judgement and local integrated assessment modelling is used for non-energy projections. Emissions from industry have been modelled by the Energy Ministry and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey using TIMES-MACRO. On 2021 trends the OECD expects emissions to double from 2015 to 2030. A "Climate Change Platform" is planned to share studies and data. Although the OECD praised the government's monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system and said in 2021 that it covers half of total emissions, unlike the public sharing of data in the EU emission trading system, much detailed emissions data in Turkey is not public. Quantitative estimates of the impact of individual government policies on emissions have not been made or are not publicly available; neither are projections of long-term policy impacts. , the most recent UNFCCC expert review noted that up-to-date GDP and population-growth forecasts have not been incorporated into models, and assumptions such as future energy intensity, energy demand and electricity consumption were unknown, and that no sensitivity analysis of GHG scenarios had been published. The UNFCCC has asked for more details needed to understand emission projections, such as assumptions about future tax levels, fuel prices, energy demand and intensity, income and household size; but Turkey has said that many such details are confidential. Although a number of issues raised in greenhouse gas inventory reviews have been resolved, dozens more have been outstanding for over three years. Space-based measurements of the signs of emissions has allowed public monitoring of the megacity of Istanbul and high emitting power plants since the early-2020s. Notes References External links UNFCCC Turkey documents Nationally Determined Contributions Turkey emissions at Climate Trace Live carbon emissions from electricity generation Methane map Fossil fuel registry Hydrogen strategy (Turkish) Turkey Climate change in Turkey