Climate Action Tracker, if all government targets were like Turkey's, global warming would exceed 4 °C by the end of the 21st century. Climate Action Tracker predicts that after the country's COVID-19 pandemic emissions will resume their rise, and reach 40% to 70% above the 2020 level by 2030. The national strategy and action plan only partially covers short-term climate change mitigation. According to Climate Transparency, to take a fair share of limiting global heating to 1.5 °C, Turkey would need to reduce emissions to 365 Mt e by 2030. But the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says a faster reduction is needed, and emissions per person per year would need to be cut by more than half to about 2–2.5 t e by 2030. , discussions continue at the Parliamentary Research Commission on Global Climate Change continues. The government intends to complete its review of long-term (2030 to 2050) policy, and publish a new National Climate Change Action Plan with sector specific targets and monitoring mechanisms by 2023. Turkey argues that as a developing country it should be exempt from net emission reduction targets, but other countries do not agree. Unless Turkey's energy policy is changed, European Union (EU) emissions per person are forecast to fall below Turkey's during the 2020s. Since the EU is Turkey's main trading partner, a comparison with targets in the European Green Deal is important to help Turkish businesses avoid future EU carbon tariffs on exports such as steel and cement. Public and private sector working groups are being formed to discuss the EU Green Deal, and the Trade Ministry has published an action plan in response to it and its CBAM. According to one 2020 study, Turkey joining the EU Emission Trading Scheme would be more economically beneficial for the power sector than a national carbon tariff. Path to net zero Turkey is aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2053. But Climate Action Tracker said in 2021 that critical details on scope, target architecture and transparency are missing from the net zero goal. The World Bank has estimated the cost and benefits, but has suggested government do far more detailed planning. Turkey's Energy Efficiency Action Act, which came into force in 2018, commits nearly US$11 billion to efficiency and could significantly limit emissions. And the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is investing in climate governance and energy efficiency, for example