used most successfully in forecasting single scalar indicators. Delphi vs. prediction markets Delphi has characteristics similar to prediction markets as both are structured approaches that aggregate diverse opinions from groups. Yet, there are differences that may be decisive for their relative applicability for different problems. Some advantages of prediction markets derive from the possibility to provide incentives for participation. They can motivate people to participate over a long period of time and to reveal their true beliefs. They aggregate information automatically and instantly incorporate new information in the forecast. Participants do not have to be selected and recruited manually by a facilitator. They themselves decide whether to participate if they think their private information is not yet incorporated in the forecast. Delphi seems to have these advantages over prediction markets: Participants reveal their reasoning It is easier to maintain confidentiality Potentially quicker forecasts if experts are readily available. Delphi is applicable in situations where the bets involved might affect the value of the currency used in bets (e.g. a bet on the collapse of the dollar made in dollars might have distorted odds). More recent research has also focused on combining both, the Delphi technique and prediction markets. More specifically, in a research study at Deutsche Börse elements of the Delphi method had been integrated into a prediction market. See also DARPA's Policy Analysis Market Horizon scanning Nominal group technique Planning poker Reference class forecasting Wideband delphi The Wisdom of Crowds References Further reading This article provides a detailed description of the use of modified Delphi for qualitative, participatory action research. A cross-validation study replicating one completed in the Netherlands and Belgium, and exploring US experts' views on the diagnosis and treatment of older adults with personality disorders. External links RAND publications on the Delphi Method Downloadable documents from RAND concerning applications of the Delphi Technique. Estimation methods Forecasting Systems thinking Futures techniques