The 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Arkansas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 9.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 11 out of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. Although there was little advertising and campaigning, polling did show a tight race as Bush won the state in 2000 with just over 50%. This was the last election in which Arkansas was decided by a single-digit margin or in which the Democrat received more than 40% of the state’s vote. As of 2020, this is the last time Arkansas voted to the left of Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee (though the results aligned closely in 2016) or Texas. Arkansas was 1 of 10 states to back George W. Bush twice but only back George H. W. Bush once. Primaries 2004 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. Polling Pre-election polling showed Bush leading throughout most of the general election. Bush frequently reached the 50% threshold, while Kerry never reached 47% in any poll taken prior to the election. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading at 51% to Kerry at 45%. Fundraising Bush raised $1,387,692. Kerry raised $466,194. Advertising and visits Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign. Analysis Early on, Kerry was seen to have a small but mostly insignificant chance at possibly flipping the state back to the Democratic Column. The Kerry Campaign saw Arkansas as a "Secondary Concern" focusing on the more important states such as Ohio and Wisconsin that were the key to winning the General Election. During October however Bush began to widen the margin in many polls mostly due to Bush portraying Kerry as a "Northern Yankee big-city liberal" and a "Tax raiser" in the Presidential debates and after Osama Bin Laden delivered a speech on the Arabic news network Al Jazeera days before the election quoted saying “Your security is in your own hands” Bush was essentially guaranteed to carry