until the date they were published, compared with their high level of inaccuracy after that date, is evidence that they were created around the time of publication. The verses and explanations given by Wion correspond very closely to a 1557 history of the popes by Onofrio Panvinio (including replication of errors made by Panvinio), which may indicate that the prophecy was written based on that source. In 1694, Claude-François Menestrier argued the additional interpretive statements were not written by Ciacconius, as the prophecy was not mentioned in any of Ciacconius' works, nor were the interpretive statements listed among his works. One theory to explain the prophecy's creation, put forward by 17th-century French priest and encyclopaedist Louis Moréri, among others, is that it was spread by supporters of Cardinal Girolamo Simoncelli in support of his bid to become pope during the 1590 conclave to replace Urban VII. In the prophecy, the pope following Urban VII is given the description "Ex antiquitate Urbis" ("from the old city"), and Simoncelli was from Orvieto, which in Latin is Urbevetanum, old city. Moréri and others proposed the prophecy was created in an unsuccessful attempt to demonstrate that Simoncelli was destined to be pope. However, the discovery of a reference to the prophecy in a 1587 letter has cast doubt on this theory. In this document the entourage of the Cardinal Giovanni Girolamo Albani interprets the motto "De rore coeli" ("From the dew of the sky") as a reference to their master, on the base of the link between "alba" ("dawn") and Albani, and the dew, as a typical morning atmospheric phenomenon. Interpretation The interpretation of the entries for pre-publication popes provided by Wion involves close correspondences between the mottos and the popes' birthplaces, family names, personal arms, and pre-papal titles. For example, the first motto, Ex castro Tiberis (from a castle on the Tiber), fits Celestine II's birthplace in Città di Castello, on the Tiber. Efforts to connect the prophecy to historical popes who were elected after its publication have been more strained. For example, Clement XIII is referred to as Rosa Umbriae (the rose of Umbria), but was not from Umbria nor had he any but the most marginal connection with the region, having been briefly pontifical governor of Rieti, at the time part of Umbria. One writer notes that among the post-publication (post-1595) popes there remain "some surprisingly appropriate phrases", while adding that