the need is there, whether we will use the capacity or not and I can assure you we will. Most analysts, including EIA, believe that OPEC-10's (excluding Iraq) actual production is higher than the quota amount. (NYT, Reuters) March 12: The near-month (April) crude oil futures price at the NYMEX settles at $37.83 per barrel, the highest near-month settlement price (in nominal terms) since October 1990. This comes as EIA reports today that commercial crude oil inventories for the previous week declined by to . This is below the lower operational inventory level, which, while not implying shortages, operational problems, or price increases, is indicative of a situation where inventory-related supply flexibility could be constrained or nonexistent. This heightens supply concerns before an impending war in Iraq. (WSJ) March 19: Military action in Iraq commences with a bombing raid and missile attack on targets in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad (March 20 Baghdad time) by Coalition forces, given Saddam Hussein and his regime's rejection of U.S. President George Bush's March 17 ultimatum. Iraq launches several conventional missiles at Kuwait, but this has no effect on Kuwaiti oil production. However, the Kuwait Petroleum Company does implement an emergency plan to protect its workers and facilities. (Reuters) March 23: Outbreaks of violence between soldiers and militants of various ethnic groups in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria prompt three major oil companies operating in the region - ChevronTexaco, Royal Dutch/Shell, and TotalFinaElf - to shut in operations in the area, totaling about . This represents about 40% of Nigeria's total production, including about in the West Niger Delta (all operations there for the three companies) and of Shell production in the East Niger Delta. Employees of ChevronTexaco, which had declared force majeure on its Escravos crude oil terminal three days earlier, return to Nigeria on April 4 to begin a gradual resumption of production. Force majeure is lifted on April 24, 2003. (NYT, Reuters) March 24: After Coalition forces have pushed further into Iraq securing most of the southern oilfields over the weekend, Kuwaiti fire fighters are able to enter Iraq and are able to extinguish one of the wellhead fires. Iraq's southern fields represent about 40% of the country's output. Damage is assessed to be relatively minimal. Some pockets or Iraqi resistance in the southern oilfields remain, however. Furthermore, heavy Iraqi resistance in some parts of Iraq gives rise to market