quake has struck after that. Fukuoka's most famous major fault, the Kego fault, runs northwest to southeast, roughly parallel to Nishitetsu's Ōmuta train line, and was thought to be 22 km long, terminating at Hakata Bay. It is estimated to be able to produce earthquakes as strong as magnitude 7 at the epicenter approximately once every 15,000 years. When a center is located at a depth of 10 km, it would cause an earthquake of a lower-6 magnitude (similar to the March 20, 2005 earthquake) in downtown Fukuoka. The probability of an earthquake along the known length of the Kego fault occurring within 30 years was estimated at 0.4% prior to the March 20, 2005 earthquake, but this probability has been revised upwards since. According to a National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology presentation April 12, 2005 , supposing the last Kego earthquake had occurred 13,000 years ago, the probability of major activity within 30 years had been revised to 7%, or it were 7,000 years ago, the probability had been revised to 4%. Suppose that an earthquake had occurred along the Kego fault within the last 2000 years, the risk would be unchanged. M5.8 aftershock on April 20 An aftershock hit at 6:11 a.m. April 20 on Japan's southern main island of Kyūshū, the Central Meteorological Agency reported. Although considerable time had passed since the first quake, the aftershock was not unexpected. The quake, which swayed buildings and shattered some outer walls, was measured to have magnitude of 5.8. 2 and 56 people were severely and slightly injured and treated at a hospital in Fukuoka due to the quake and there were temporary closures of major highways, railway services and Fukuoka's airport. Following reports that the city has only prepared for earthquakes up to a magnitude of 6.5, the aftershock renewed fears that the quakes might cause the Kego fault to become active again beneath Fukuoka, leading to an earthquake as big as, or bigger than, the March 20 quake. In order to more accurately estimate the risk of ongoing or increased seismic activity, teams from Tokyo University, Kōchi University, Hiroshima University and Ōita University surveyed Hakata Bay to determine how far the Kego fault extends. Preliminary results, announced May 1, 2005 indicated that the fault extends nearly as far as Nokonoshima, 2.5 km out into the bay, though no sign of recent activity along the fault