and they do so amongst others in order to generate multiplier effects. Hence, there is a need to also differentiate between the two forms of domestic and 'externalized' military Keynesianism. Permanent war economy The concept of permanent war economy originated in 1944 with an article by Ed Sard (alias Frank Demby, Walter S. Oakes and T.N. Vance), a theoretician who predicted a post-war arms race. He argued at the time that the United States would retain the character of a war economy; even in peacetime, US military expenditure would remain large, reducing the percentage of unemployed compared to the 1930s. He extended this analysis in 1950 and 1951. Empirical estimates Many economists have attempted to estimate the multiplier effect of military expenditures with mixed results. A meta-analysis of 42 primary studies with 243 estimates concluded that military expenditures tended to increase the economy in developed countries with military exports but decrease the economy in less developed countries with generally higher level of political corruption. Externalities Externalities are rarely if ever considered in estimating a multiplier effect. This can be a serious issue for military expenditures. For example, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) relies mostly on captured weapons. For example, in Mosul between 4 and 10 June 2014 a group of between 500 and 600 ISIL troops "were able to seize six divisions' worth of strategic weaponry, all of it US-supplied" from a force with a paper strength of 120,000 men. In considering the multiplier effect of military expenditures, the people killed and property destroyed are not considered. The only things that are considered are the increased weapon sales to replace those stolen and the costs associated with combatting ISIL. Those are considered as increasing the Gross Domestic Product of the United States, and that is assumed to be good. See also Arms industry Bernard Baruch Cold War Countercyclical Employer of last resort Iron triangle (US politics) Keynesian economics Lemon socialism List of countries by military expenditures Military budget of the United States Military–industrial complex Parable of the broken window Perpetual war Ultra-imperialism War economy Notes References Walter S. Oakes, 1944, "Towards a Permanent Arms Economy?", Politics, February. T. N. Vance, 1950, "After Korea What? An Economic Interpretation of U.S. Perspectives", New International, November–December. T. N. Vance, 1951, "The Permanent Arms Economy", New International. [series of articles] Charles Edward Wilson, "Army Ordnance (Vol. XXVI, No. 143, March–April