prices for metals. Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2010 was 4.3%, leading to a per-capita PPP GDP of US$6,700. In 2011, Ukrainian politicians estimated that 40% of Ukraine's economy is a shadow economy. In the summer of 2013, Ukrainian exports to Russia fell substantially due to Russia's stricter customs controls. By October 2013, the Ukrainian economy had become stuck in recession. Moody's downgraded Ukraine's credit rating to Caa1 (poor quality and very high credit risk) in September 2013. At the time, swap markets rated Ukraine's default probability over the next five years at 50 percent. In 2013, Ukraine saw no growth in GDP. After Euromaidan: 2014 to present Due to the loss of Ukraine's largest trading partner, Russia, over the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, and exacerbated by the War in Donbas which started in April 2014 Ukraine's economy shrank by 6.8% in 2014. It had been expected to decline by 8%. A Ukrainian government report stated early in February 2016 that Ukraine's economy had shrunk by 10.4% in 2015. For 2015, the National Bank of Ukraine had expected a further decline of 11.6%, and the World Bank anticipated a 12% shrinkage. The World Bank forecast growth of 1% in 2016. Early in February 2014, the National Bank of Ukraine changed the hryvnia into a fluctuating/floating currency in an attempt to meet IMF requirements and to try to enforce a stable price for the currency in the Forex market. In 2014 and 2015, the hryvnia lost about 70% of its value against the U.S. dollar. The IMF agreed to a four-year loan program worth about $17.5 billion in eight tranches over 2015 and 2016, subject to conditions which involved economic reforms. However, due to lack of progress on reforms, only two tranches worth $6.7 billion were paid in 2015. A third tranche of $1.7 billion was provisionally scheduled in June 2016 subject to the bringing into law of 19 further reform measures. Some western analysts believe that large foreign loans are not encouraging reform, but enabling the corrupt extraction of funds out of the country. Since December 2015, Ukraine has refused to pay and hence de facto defaults on a $3 billion debt payment to Russia that formed part of a December 2013 Ukrainian–Russian action plan. The turnover of retail trade in Ukraine in 2014 shrank by 8.6% (from 2013) and shrank by 20.7% in 2015 (from 2014). Ukraine