National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientist criticized NASA for using an inaccurate model for the second most-intense sunspot cycle in a century, and for ignoring NOAA predictions published in 1976. The reentry of the USSR's nuclear powered Cosmos 954 in January 1978, and the resulting radioactive debris fall in northern Canada, drew more attention to Skylab's orbit. Although Skylab did not contain radioactive materials, the State Department warned NASA about the potential diplomatic repercussions of station debris. Battelle Memorial Institute forecast that up to 25 tons of metal debris could land in 500 pieces over an area long and wide. The lead-lined film vault, for example, might land intact at 400 feet per second. Ground controllers re-established contact with Skylab in March 1978 and recharged its batteries. Although NASA worked on plans to reboost Skylab with the Space Shuttle through 1978 and the TRS was almost complete, the agency gave up in December 1978 when it became clear that the shuttle would not be ready in time; its first flight, STS-1, did not occur until April 1981. Also rejected were proposals to launch the TRS using one or two uncrewed rockets or to attempt to destroy the station with missiles. Re-entry and debris Skylab's demise in 1979 was an international media event, with T-shirts and hats with bullseyes and "Skylab Repellent" with a money-back guarantee, wagering on the time and place of re-entry, and nightly news reports. The San Francisco Examiner offered a US$10,000 prize for the first piece of Skylab delivered to its offices; the competing San Francisco Chronicle offered US$200,000 if a subscriber suffered personal or property damage. A Nebraska neighborhood painted a target so that the station would have "something to aim for", a resident said. A report commissioned by NASA calculated that the odds were 1 in 152 of debris hitting any human, and odds of 1 in 7 of debris hitting a city of 100,000 people or more. Special teams were readied to head to any country hit by debris. The event caused so much panic in the Philippines that President Ferdinand Marcos appeared on national television to reassure the public. A week before re-entry, NASA forecast that it would occur between July 10 and 14, with the 12th the most likely date, and the Royal Aircraft Establishment (RAE) predicted the 14th. In the hours before the event, ground controllers adjusted Skylab's orientation to