weak banking systems" according to the Financial Times. In recent years, research has demonstrated that behavioral biases play a significant role in affecting the accuracy of forecasts. The education and working experience of forecasters influence the accuracy and boldness of their predictions. Forecasting accuracy is also impacted by the forecaster's experience with high inflation rates. Additionally, political events such as terrorism have been shown to influence the accuracy of both expert- and market-based forecasts of inflation and exchange rates. This highlights the range of external factors and biases that should be considered when evaluating the accuracy of forecasts and making informed decisions. Forecasts and the Great Recession The financial and economic crisis that erupted in 2007—arguably the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s—was not foreseen by most forecasters, though a number of analysts had been predicting it for some time (for example, Stephen Roach, Meredith Whitney, Gary Shilling, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Nouriel Roubini, Brooksley Born, and Robert Shiller). The failure of the majority of them to forecast the "Great Recession" caused soul searching in the profession. The UK's Queen Elizabeth herself asked why had “nobody” noticed that the credit crunch was on its way, and a group of economists—experts from business, the City, its regulators, academia, and government—tried to explain in a letter. It was not just forecasting the Great Recession, but also forecasting its impact where it was clear that economists struggled. For example, in Singapore Citi argued the country would experience "the most severe recession in Singapore’s history". The economy grew in 2009 by 3.1% and in 2010, the nation saw a 15.2% growth rate. Similarly, Nouriel Roubini predicted in January 2009 that oil prices would stay below $40 for all of 2009. By the end of 2009, however, oil prices were at $80. In March 2009, he predicted the S&P 500 would fall below 600 that year, and possibly plummet to 200. It closed at over 1,115, up 24%, the largest single year gain since 2003. In 2009 he also predicted that the US government would take over and nationalize a number of large banks; it did not happen. In October 2009 he predicted that gold "can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30%”; he was wrong, as the price of gold rose over the next 18 months, breaking through the $1,000 barrier to over $1,400. Although in May 2010 he predicted