creating a thermonuclear-capable payload for at least one of its missiles, the North has created a need for THAAD, which is capable of intercepting ICBM threats at the lower altitudes and ranges estimated for a Hwasong-14 ICBM subjected to the load of a heavier warhead needed to carry a thermonuclear weapon. On 4 September 2017, BBC analyst Jonathan Marcus predicted a flood of several million refugees at the border of North Korea and China, were the North to be destroyed. China has positioned only two brigades at the border. Marcus points out that China and Russia have proposed the de-nuclearization of Korea and the replacement of the armistice with a peace treaty. On 25 October 2017, Battery D, 2nd Air Defense Artillery Regiment, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, reflagged with the 35th Air Defense Artillery Brigade in preparation for a permanent change of station to South Korea. In the interim before THAAD D-2's permanent transfer to South Korea with their families, THAAD Battery A-4 will deploy to South Korea. The South Korean decision to deploy THAAD to protect itself against North Korea caused backlash and retaliation measures from China. On 30 October 2017, South Korea and China agreed to normalize relations, which had rifted due to THAAD deployment. Turkey According to U.S. officials the AN/TPY-2 radar was deployed at Turkey's Kürecik Air Force base. The radar was activated in January 2012. United Arab Emirates The United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed a deal to purchase the missile defense system on 25 December 2011. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) graduated its first two THAAD unit classes at Fort Bliss in 2015 and 2016. Its first live-fire exercises with Patriot missiles took place in 2014. On 17 January 2022, THAAD made its first real-world intercept against an incoming Houthi ballistic missile in the UAE. United States Hawaii In June 2009, the United States deployed a THAAD unit to Hawaii, along with the SBX sea-based radar, to defend against a possible North Korean launch targeting the archipelago. Guam In April 2013, the United States declared that Alpha Battery, 4th Air Defense Artillery Regiment (A-4), would be deployed to Guam to defend against a possible North Korean IRBM attack targeting the island. In March 2014, Alpha Battery, 2nd ADA RGT (A-2), did a change of responsibility with A-4 and took over the Defense of Guam Mission. After a successful 12-month deployment by A-4, Delta 2