a 20% decline in the stock market, the S&P actually rose about 20% over the course of the next year (even excluding returns from dividends). List of regularly published surveys based on polling economists on their forecasts See also Aladdin (BlackRock) Efficient contract theory Social return on investment Financial forecast Stock market prediction Footnotes Further reading Walter A. Friedman, Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2013. . "The IMF and OECD versus Consensus Forecasts", August 2000. Applied Economics, 33(2), p. 225-235 Roy Batchelor (City University Business School) The IMF and OECD versus Consensus Forecasts "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective", Working Paper Series 14, 2010, December 2010 Filip Novotný and Marie Raková (both Czech National Bank) "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech national Bank Perspective" IMF forecasts can be found here: IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank forecasts are here World Bank Global Economic Prospects, and OECD forecasts here: OECD Economic Outlook Two of the leading journals in the field of economic forecasting are the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting For a comprehensive but quite technical compendium, see Handbook of Economic Forecasting, North-Holland: Elsevier, 2006 A more compact and more accessible, but pre-crisis overview is provided in Elements of Forecasting, 4th edn, Cincinnati, OH: South-Western College Publishing, 2007 A recent, comprehensive and accessible guide to forecasting is Economic Forecasting and Policy, 2d edn, Palgrave, 2011 External links CBO Budget & Economic Outlook - 2015 to 2025 IMF - World Economic Outlook - April 2015 World Bank - Global Economic Prospects Fannie Mae Economic & Housing Outlook OECD Economic Outlook FRB St. Louis-Kevin Kliesen-A Guide to Tracking the U.S. Economy-Q1 2015 Mathematical and quantitative methods (economics)