it has been estimated that suitable data for PVA is available for only 2% of threatened bird species. PVA for threatened and endangered species is particularly a problem as the predictive power of PVA plummets dramatically with minimal datasets. Ellner et al. (2002) argued that PVA has little value in such circumstances and is best replaced by other methods. Others argue that PVA remains the best tool available for estimations of extinction risk, especially with the use of sensitivity model runs. Even with an adequate dataset, it is possible that a PVA can still have large errors in extinction rate predictions. It is impossible to incorporate all future possibilities into a PVA: habitats may change, catastrophes may occur, new diseases may be introduced. PVA utility can be enhanced by multiple model runs with varying sets of assumptions including the forecast future date. Some prefer to use PVA always in a relative analysis of benefits of alternative management schemes, such as comparing proposed resource management plans. Accuracy of PVAs has been tested in a few retrospective studies. For example, a study comparing PVA model forecasts with the actual fate of 21 well-studied taxa, showed that growth rate projections are accurate, if input variables are based on sound data, but highlighted the importance of understanding density-dependence (Brook et al. 2000). Also, McCarthey et al. (2003) showed that PVA predictions are relatively accurate, when they are based on long-term data. Still, the usefulness of PVA lies more in its capacity to identify and assess potential threats, than in making long-term, categorical predictions (Akçakaya & Sjögren-Gulve 2000). Future directions Improvements to PVA likely to occur in the near future include: 1) creating a fixed definition of PVA and scientific standards of quality by which all PVA are judged and 2) incorporating recent genetic advances into PVA. See also Biodiversity Endangered Species Act IUCN Red List Minimum viable population Population dynamics Population genetics References Further reading Beissinger, Steven R. and McCullough, Dale R. (2002). “Population Viability Analysis”, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Gilpin, M.E. and Soulé, M.E. (1986). “Conservation biology: The Science of Scarcity and Diversity”, Sunderland, Massachusetts: Sinauer Associates Perrins, C.M., Lebreton, J.D., and Hirons, G.J.M. (eds.) (1991). “Bird population studies: relevance to conservation and management”, New York: Oxford University Press External links GreenBoxes code sharing network. Greenboxes (Beta) is a repository for open-source population modeling and PVA code. Greenboxes allows users an easy