points before a recession. The U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator year-over-year change turns negative before a recession. When the CFNAI Diffusion Index drops below the value of −0.35, then there is an of the beginning a recession. Usually, the signal happens in the three months of the recession. The CFNAI Diffusion Index signal tends to happen about one month before a related signal by the CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) drops below the −0.7 level. The CFNAI-MA3 correctly identified the 7 recessions between March 1967 – August 2019, while triggering only 2 false alarms. Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors. Analysis by Prakash Loungani of the International Monetary Fund found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009. However, the following are considered possible predictors: The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago posts updates of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI). The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) (WEI). The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N). Inverted yield curve, the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate. Another model developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims. U.S. unemployment index is defined as the difference between the 3-month average of the unemployment rate and the 12-month minimum of the unemployment rate. Unemployment momentum and acceleration with Hidden Markov model. Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (includes some of the above indicators). Lowering of asset prices, such as homes and financial assets, or high personal and corporate debt levels. Commodity prices may increase before recessions, which usually hinders consumer spending by making necessities like transportation and housing costlier. This will tend to constrict spending for non-essential goods and services. Once the recession occurs, commodity prices will usually reset to a lower level. Increased income inequality. Decreasing recreational vehicle shipments. Declining trucking volumes. The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread. Government responses Keynesian economists favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions to increase aggregate demand. Strategies favored for moving an economy out