GEEK (Internet America)—beat the market, again contradicting the efficient market hypothesis. In another study, Smith found that the U. S. stock market has done better on sunny days than on cloudy days in New York City even though daily fluctuations in New York's cloudiness do not affect the fundamental value of the stocks being traded. Although not a stock market anomaly, another Smith paper found further evidence of the cognitive biases that lead investors astray: experienced poker players tend to be less cautious after large losses, evidently attempting to recoup their losses quickly. If investors are like poker players, their behavior might well be affected by large gains and losses, for example, making otherwise imprudent long-shot investments with the hope of offsetting a prior loss cheaply. Hot Hands Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky's analysis of basketball data debunked the common perception that players sometimes have “hot hands.” In fact, they found that the probability of making a shot was usually somewhat lower after having made shots than after having missed shots. However, data from basketball games have several confounding influences. A player's two successive shots might be taken 30 seconds apart, 5 minutes apart, in different halves of a game, or even in different games. Another problem is that a player who makes several shots may be more willing to take difficult shots than is a player who has been missing shots. In addition, the opposing team may guard a player differently when he is perceived to be hot or cold. Smith analyzed bowling and horseshoe pitching—sports that do not have these confounding influences—and found evidence of hot hands. Players were more likely to do well after having done well than after having done poorly. The observed fluctuations in performance are not nearly as large as many people think, but are large enough to be the difference between victory and defeat. Death Postponement In his early statistics textbooks, Smith cited a study claiming that famous people can postpone death until after the celebration of their birthdays. Several of Smith's students attempted to replicate this finding, and could not. Puzzled by this, Smith and another student (Heather Royer, now a professor herself) reexamined the birthday/deathday data and found that the author had lumped together all deaths that occurred during the birth month, not distinguishing those that occurred before the birthday from those that occurred afterward. Deaths that occurred during the birth month