A percentage average is taken. This distribution is then applied to the current years students-irrespective of their individual CAG. A further standardisation adjustment could be made on the basis of previous personal historic data: at A level this could be a GCSE result, at GCSE this could be a Key Stage 2 SAT. For small cohorts, and minority interest exams (under 15). The individual CAG is used unchanged |- | The formulas for large schools with for small schools with The variables is the number of pupils in the subject being assessed is a specific grade indicates the school is the historical grade distribution of grade at the school (centre) over the last three years, 2017-19. is the predicted grade distribution based on the class’s prior attainment at GCSEs. A class with mostly 9s (the top grade) at GCSE will get a lot of predicted A*s; a class with mostly 1s at GCSEs will get a lot of predicted Us. is the predicted grade distribution of the previous years, based on their GCSEs. You need to know that because, if previous years were predicted to do poorly and did well, then this year might do the same. is the fraction of pupils in the class where historical data is available. If you can perfectly track down every GCSE result, then it is 1; if you cannot track down any, it is 0. CAG is the centre assessed grade. is the result, which is the grade distribution for each grade at each school . |} Schools were asked to make a fair and objective judgement of the grade they believed a student would have achieved, but in addition to rank the students within each grade. This was because the statistical standardisation process required more granular information than the grade alone. Some examining boards issued guidance on the process of forming the judgement to be used within centres, where several teachers taught a subject. This was to be submitted 29 May 2020. For A-level students, their school had already included a predicted grade as part of the UCAS university application reference. This was submitted by 15 January (15 October 2019 for Oxbridge and medicine) and had been shared with the students. This UCAS predicted grade is not the same as the Ofqual predicted grade. The normal way to test a predictive algorithm is to run it against the previous year's data: this