Canterbury, including elderly and children, is junk science and made-up predictions of future major quakes." Smith described Ring as "scaremongering" and attended a lunch on 20 March at the Sign of the Kiwi, close to the epicentre of 22 February earthquake, organised by the New Zealand Skeptics organisation. After the widespread death and destruction caused by the earlier earthquakes counsellors say his prediction for 20 March terrified "even the most rational" of people. 18 March had been made a special public holiday for Christchurch, and some residents left the city for the three-day weekend of 18–20 March, citing a mix of doubt and concern over the prediction, as well as wishing to have a break from the aftershocks and to take advantage of the long weekend. A 5.1 magnitude aftershock occurred at 9:47 pm (NZDT) on 20 March, and according to his supporters validated Ring's prediction. Scientists contend there is no link with Ring's predictions, and with a quake measuring 5 or higher occurring once every 11 days since 4 September, it was within the range expected in the ongoing aftershock pattern. David Winter, a PhD student in evolutionary genetics, analysed Ring's predictions and noted that the moon only explains a 2% variation in earthquake activity and wrote that cognitive and hindsight bias are possible reasons for so many people believing his predictions. New Zealand's TV3 news channel says they have not been able to "find a single scientist, geologist or seismologist which believes in Ken Ring's theories". Alison Campbell, a lecturer in science education at the University of Waikato, criticised Ring's predictions for "imprecision", "inconsistencies", and being "vaguely worded", and described Ring as "hedging his bets." One such example of confirmation bias is a Ring prediction from 2011, which was reported in an article for local Wellington newspaper, the Upper Hutt Leader. On 14 November 2016, Kaikoura and Wellington city experienced a M7.8 earthquake. Ring was quoted in 2011 as saying "I do expect earthquake activity exceeding 7 on the Richter to come about every 11 to 13 years, as they have done in Wellington in February 1893, August 1904, August 1917, July 1929, August 1942, May 1968 and May 1992. As the last in the series of above-7s was in 1992 we can reasonably expect a 7 mag between 2013 and 2016," allowing a full four-year window for an earthquake to occur, making the "prediction" useless. References External