As mentioned before, the goal of this work is to predict the behavior of hydrocarbon pyrolysis under conditions in which MD simulations timescale is insufficient, i.e., low temperatures. At low temperatures the bias (fig. ) cannot be computed as MD simulations would not have enough reactions occurring. Hence, the only option is to estimate the variance and keep it at a reasonably low value. The efficacy of this approach can be estimated by also computing the variance at high temperature and, with the bias calculated in eq. 4, the full picture at high temperature will be available.