Using a fixed substitution ratio and fixed substitutional elasticity, we calculate the emissions per ton steel equivalent as a function of electricity cost and grid emission factor (Figure ). At industrial electricity prices ($20/GJ) and carbon intensities (0.090 t CO2/GJ) in the U.S. today, metal production is dominated by conventional steel with some conventional aluminum, as shown in the inset pie charts. At electricity costs above $5/GJ, coal and natural gas dominate the energy mix for metals production, making emissions per unit metal relatively insensitive both to electricity cost and emissions intensity of electricity. At electricity costs below $5/GJ, electrified steel substitutes for fossil steel, and aluminum substitutes for steel broadly. This could lead either to dramatic increases in overall metals emissions or dramatic decreases, depending on the grid emissions factor of electricity. Substitution of aluminum for steel today means more emissions from metal production, but this may not be true in the future.