The RMSEs of the model predictions for each of microalgae biomass, effluent orthophosphate, and biomass yield were 96.2 g-VSS•m -3 , 0.04 g-P•m -3 , and 43.5 g-biomass produced•g-P removed -1 , respectively (Figure ). The PM 2 was able to capture the overall increasing and decreasing trajectories of dynamic changes, with the slopes of the model predictions closely tracking those of the observed performance (Figure ). During the calibration period, especially from April 2 onwards, the system experienced an upset (P > 0.04 mg-P L -1 ) due to changes in the upstream secondary treatment process and more frequent membrane cleaning. The PM 2 also predicted the highest effluent orthophosphate peak during the upset event, but its prediction of performance deterioration was dampened relative to the dynamics observed in the full-scale system. This result implies our model (as it currently exists) has limitations in fully representing a variety of operational changes beyond the system boundary specified in this study. Additionally, the influent flow rate during the system upset (up to 600 m 3 •d - 1 ) appeared to be higher than the average influent flow rate assumed in the simulation (449 m 3 •d - 1 ; Figure ). We found that the accuracy of predicting the effluent orthophosphate peak could be improved when simulated with 600 m 3 •d -1 (Figure ). As expected, this suggests applying dynamic flow rates will allow our model to more sensitively capture the changes in system performance.