We then use the following logic to create a distribution of possible durations for a given naive event, E i . We refer to E i as the event that the PDM is "applied to." If E i has zero probability of being combined with either adjacent event, then we sample uniformly from the range of possible start and end times for event E i . If E i has non-zero probability of being combined with one adjacent event, E j , then we sample start times (if E j occurs before E i ) or end times (if E j occurs after E i ) with probability P i,j from E j and with probability 1 -P i,j from E i . If E i has non-zero probability of being combined with more than one adjacent event, then the procedure for sampling start and end times described above is applied recursively until an event, E k , with P i,k = 0 is encountered. The differences in time between all combinations of sampled start and end times are taken as the distribution of possible durations for E i . A point estimate of the event duration can be produced by taking the mean or maximum (if an upper bound is desired) of this distribution. Section S4 in the SI file contains details about the recursive sampling method.