Counterfactual Instances Explain Little
  In many applications, it is important to be able to explain the decisions of
machine learning systems. An increasingly popular approach has been to seek to
provide \emph{counterfactual instance explanations}. These specify close
possible worlds in which, contrary to the facts, a person receives their
desired decision from the machine learning system. This paper will draw on
literature from the philosophy of science to argue that a satisfactory
explanation must consist of both counterfactual instances and a causal equation
(or system of equations) that support the counterfactual instances. We will
show that counterfactual instances by themselves explain little. We will
further illustrate how explainable AI methods that provide both causal
equations and counterfactual instances can successfully explain machine
learning predictions.
