Expert and Non-Expert Opinion about Technological Unemployment
  There is significant concern that technological advances, especially in
Robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI), could lead to high levels of
unemployment in the coming decades. Studies have estimated that around half of
all current jobs are at risk of automation. To look into this issue in more
depth, we surveyed experts in Robotics and AI about the risk, and compared
their views with those of non-experts. Whilst the experts predicted a
significant number of occupations were at risk of automation in the next two
decades, they were more cautious than people outside the field in predicting
occupations at risk. Their predictions were consistent with their estimates for
when computers might be expected to reach human level performance across a wide
range of skills. These estimates were typically decades later than those of the
non-experts. Technological barriers may therefore provide society with more
time to prepare for an automated future than the public fear. In addition,
public expectations may need to be dampened about the speed of progress to be
expected in Robotics and AI.
