Predicting Enemy's Actions Improves Commander Decision-Making
  The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Real-time Adversarial
Intelligence and Decision-making (RAID) program is investigating the
feasibility of "reading the mind of the enemy" - to estimate and anticipate, in
real-time, the enemy's likely goals, deceptions, actions, movements and
positions. This program focuses specifically on urban battles at echelons of
battalion and below. The RAID program leverages approximate game-theoretic and
deception-sensitive algorithms to provide real-time enemy estimates to a
tactical commander. A key hypothesis of the program is that these predictions
and recommendations will make the commander more effective, i.e. he should be
able to achieve his operational goals safer, faster, and more efficiently.
Realistic experimentation and evaluation drive the development process using
human-in-the-loop wargames to compare humans and the RAID system. Two
experiments were conducted in 2005 as part of Phase I to determine if the RAID
software could make predictions and recommendations as effectively and
accurately as a 4-person experienced staff. This report discusses the
intriguing and encouraging results of these first two experiments conducted by
the RAID program. It also provides details about the experiment environment and
methodology that were used to demonstrate and prove the research goals.
