How to Elicit Many Probabilities
  In building Bayesian belief networks, the elicitation of all probabilities
required can be a major obstacle. We learned the extent of this often-cited
observation in the construction of the probabilistic part of a complex
influence diagram in the field of cancer treatment. Based upon our negative
experiences with existing methods, we designed a new method for probability
elicitation from domain experts. The method combines various ideas, among which
are the ideas of transcribing probabilities and of using a scale with both
numerical and verbal anchors for marking assessments. In the construction of
the probabilistic part of our influence diagram, the method proved to allow for
the elicitation of many probabilities in little time.
