Conflict and Surprise: Heuristics for Model Revision
  Any probabilistic model of a problem is based on assumptions which, if
violated, invalidate the model. Users of probability based decision aids need
to be alerted when cases arise that are not covered by the aid's model.
Diagnosis of model failure is also necessary to control dynamic model
construction and revision. This paper presents a set of decision theoretically
motivated heuristics for diagnosing situations in which a model is likely to
provide an inadequate representation of the process being modeled.
