A Defect in Dempster-Shafer Theory
  By analyzing the relationships among chance, weight of evidence and degree of
beliefwe show that the assertion "probability functions are special cases of
belief functions" and the assertion "Dempster's rule can be used to combine
belief functions based on distinct bodies of evidence" together lead to an
inconsistency in Dempster-Shafer theory. To solve this problem, we must reject
some fundamental postulates of the theory. We introduce a new approach for
uncertainty management that shares many intuitive ideas with D-S theory, while
avoiding this problem.
