Anticipatory Thinking: A Metacognitive Capability
  Anticipatory thinking is a complex cognitive process for assessing and
managing risk in many contexts. Humans use anticipatory thinking to identify
potential future issues and proactively take actions to manage their risks. In
this paper we define a cognitive systems approach to anticipatory thinking as a
metacognitive goal reasoning mechanism. The contributions of this paper include
(1) defining anticipatory thinking in the MIDCA cognitive architecture, (2)
operationalizing anticipatory thinking as a three step process for managing
risk in plans, and (3) a numeric risk assessment calculating an expected
cost-benefit ratio for modifying a plan with anticipatory actions.
