Lower Complexity Bounds for Lifted Inference
  One of the big challenges in the development of probabilistic relational (or
probabilistic logical) modeling and learning frameworks is the design of
inference techniques that operate on the level of the abstract model
representation language, rather than on the level of ground, propositional
instances of the model. Numerous approaches for such "lifted inference"
techniques have been proposed. While it has been demonstrated that these
techniques will lead to significantly more efficient inference on some specific
models, there are only very recent and still quite restricted results that show
the feasibility of lifted inference on certain syntactically defined classes of
models. Lower complexity bounds that imply some limitations for the feasibility
of lifted inference on more expressive model classes were established early on
in (Jaeger 2000). However, it is not immediate that these results also apply to
the type of modeling languages that currently receive the most attention, i.e.,
weighted, quantifier-free formulas. In this paper we extend these earlier
results, and show that under the assumption that NETIME =/= ETIME, there is no
polynomial lifted inference algorithm for knowledge bases of weighted,
quantifier- and function-free formulas. Further strengthening earlier results,
this is also shown to hold for approximate inference, and for knowledge bases
not containing the equality predicate.
