The Scope and Limits of Simulation in Cognitive Models
  It has been proposed that human physical reasoning consists largely of
running "physics engines in the head" in which the future trajectory of the
physical system under consideration is computed precisely using accurate
scientific theories. In such models, uncertainty and incomplete knowledge is
dealt with by sampling probabilistically over the space of possible
trajectories ("Monte Carlo simulation"). We argue that such simulation-based
models are too weak, in that there are many important aspects of human physical
reasoning that cannot be carried out this way, or can only be carried out very
inefficiently; and too strong, in that humans make large systematic errors that
the models cannot account for. We conclude that simulation-based reasoning
makes up at most a small part of a larger system that encompasses a wide range
of additional cognitive processes.
