 What does the Fed fund futures curve really imply?Right now it shows rates at 4.44 at year end. Thats far from the 5.00-5.25 that the Fed is forecasting via the dot plot but be careful as interpreting that as the market thinking the Fed will start cutting.The 4.44 rate at year end is a probability-weighted number and shows the pitfalls of assuming that market participants have settled on a single number. Instead, think of it as the intersection of a range of possibilities. 