 We view the governments forecast of gross loan debt rising to 81.8 of GDP in FY21, much higher than the 65.6 in the original budget, as realistic. However, we believe its expectation that debt will peak at 87.4 in FY24 is optimistic. This would require sufficient fiscal consolidation to achieve a primary budget surplus in that year, which would be South Africas first since 2008, towards the end of the commodity boom. 