 Carnival NYSE:CCL,NYSE:CUK stock is showing signs of life. CCL stock last week slid to its lowest level in more than two months. Since then, its rallied 21 in six sessions.Source: Ruth Peterkin Shutterstock.com The gains certainly are welcome. Even with the bounce, CCL stock and CUK stock remain the two worst large-cap over 10 billion stocks so far in 2020. Theyve declined 69 and 72, respectively; Occidental Petroleum NYSE:OXY is next, losing just 63 of its value this year.But the gains also are a bit curious. Carnival itself really hasnt delivered much in the way of news over the past week or so. Rather, investors seem to be betting on stocks like Carnival, perhaps hoping for a return to normalcy.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice Trading TipsThose hopes have some validity. Work continues apace on a vaccine, with Moderna NASDAQ:MRNA coming to a supply agreement with the federal government on Tuesday. And at some point, life will return to normal. 8 Cheap Stocks to Keep on Your Short List But that alone is not enough to make the case for CCL stock. At the least, its not enough to choose CCL over other plays that similarly could benefit from optimism toward normalcy and its eventual arrival. Not Just CarnivalAgain, its not just Carnival that has rallied of late.Airline stocks have gained. The U.S. Global Jets ETF NYSEARCA:JETS has risen for eight straight sessions, gaining 14 in the process. Major U.S. airlines like Delta Air Lines NYSE:DAL and United Airlines NASDAQ:UAL have rallied even faster.Indeed, Carnival stock isnt even the only cruise play to rally. While CCL is up 21 over six sessions, Royal Caribbean NYSE:RCL is 24 and Norwegian Cruise Lines NYSE:NCLH 20.Its difficult to pinpoint exactly why the sector lately has popped. Lower prices certainly helped; most of these other stocks also touched a multi-month low last week. The end of a blowout earnings season for tech, and huge rallies in the markets biggest names, may have led some investors to rotate out of growth names and into value plays.Or it could hope for andor optimism toward better times for the industry. Whatever the cause, CCL stock is not alone. Two Big Problems for CCL StockIm broadly sympathetic to the investment case for the kinds of stocks that have rallied over the past few sessions. Normalcy will return, one way or another. Near-term losses are material, but there should be pent-up demand for travel that might lead to a few blowout quarters down the line.And with such steep sell-offs, a return to past highs suggests enormous upside. Carnival, for instance, would rally about 200. That process could take a decade, and Carnival still would be a fantastic investment.But for CCL in particular, that case falls somewhat flat. The company has raised billions of dollars in debt this year that has to be paid off out of future earnings. Guidance for 2020 in fact suggests that Carnival will burn over 7 billion in cash in 2020 alone, a material portion of a current 11 billion market capitalization.The burn doesnt stop when the calendar turns, either. Wall Street sees the company losing more than 2 per share next year; even accounting for likely reduced capital expenditures, Carnival could burn another 1 billion next year. From that point on, interest expense will be significantly elevated for years to come.The other problem is that the pandemic hits Carnivals business model in a way that simply isnt true for airlines, in particular. How many potential customers have been turned off from the industry for good owing to stories of cruisers being stuck on ships for weeks at a time? How many are going to buy or rent recreational vehicles instead, or risk two airline flights that last a few hours instead of a cruise that lasts at least several days? What Normalcy MeansPut another way, normalcy for all of us doesnt mean normalcy for Carnival. Demand is going to be lower for years, and possibly for good. Thats doubly true given that millennials, at least for now, dont seem terribly interested in the industry, perhaps in part due to its environmental impact.And given costs that are going to clear 10 billion between losses, dilution, and interest expense, a return to normalcy doesnt mean that CCL stock goes back above 50.In contrast, some travel names have a clearer path toward restoring past profits. Admittedly, those stocks havent fallen as far as CCL. But thats not because Carnival stock is a better opportunity.Its because Carnival has bigger problems than even some of the companies most impacted by the pandemic. And that suggests that this short-term rally in CCL stock is likely to run into renewed long-term skepticism.Vince Martin has covered the financial industry for close to a decade for InvestorPlace.com and other outlets. He has no positions in any securities mentioned. More From InvestorPlace Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG Americas 1 Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000 Winner Revolutionary Tech Behind 5G Rollout Is Being Pioneered By This 1 Company Radical New Battery Could Dismantle Oil Markets The post You Should Fade This Carnival Cruise Lines Stock Rally While You Still Can appeared first on InvestorPlace. 