 Economist Campbell Harvey wrote his PhD dissertation at the University of Chicago decades ago on the shape of the bond yield curve being linked to the path of US economic activity.i.e. That US recessions have been preceded by an inverted yield curvewhich is when short-term rates exceed those of longer term rates this is the gist of itThis time though... My yield-curve indicator has gone code red, and its 8 for 8 in forecasting recessions since 1... 