<prompt> Human: Im frequently told the futilities of trying to time the stock market, but recently Ive been persuaded by the idea of timing the economy instead.This strategy claims to use things like unemployment numbers, money supply growth rate, yield spreads on bonds, and the purchasing managers Index to calculate the stage the economy is in. Early-Mid-Late-RecessionOnce youve determined the economies state, you pick the corresponding stocks that thrive in each economic state. Small caps, large caps, bonds, etc.This technique claims to even be able to detect a recession early on and switch over to bonds and avoid the brunt of the losses, and then transition back to stocks when the indicators show the economy going back to the early stage.Do you think this strategy has any merit? On one hand it seems logical and statistic based, but on the other hand, it kinda sounds like trying to time the market. Do you think this strategy has any merit?  <response>: Thats the same thing. Since stock prices already consider these stats and their expected movements, you likely have no advantage of the rest of the market. You cant time the market, where the market is the collective decisions of all humans, because they see the same things and are surprised by the same surprises, e.g. lower than expected hiring greater than expected earnings. 