<prompt> Human: Say by age 60, you have an estimated 3,000,000 in your retirement account. With a withdrawal rate of 4, thatd mean 120,000 a year. However, say after withdrawing 4, that year the remaining balance in my 401k increases an average rate of 7 again, Id be somewhat close to the same place I ended up in right? Id never technically run out unless I take as much as I earn in withdraw 7, gain 7 since you need to recover more than 7 to be at the same place. This doesnt account for recessions.  <response>: You can use cFIRESim or FireCalc to calculate your withdraw portfolio and withdrawal rate against historical data with recessions depressions. Both tools will show you how many cycles will be a failuresuccess. The 4 withdrawal rate tends to work roughly 95 of the time and fail 5; dropping your withdrawal to a more conservative 3-3.5 can usually get you a 98-99 success rate of never running out of money. 